US: PPI and unemployment claims indicators


PPI increased by 9.7% year-on-year in December. This set a new series record (PPI was first reported in 2011), but slightly below the median economist estimate of 9.8%. PPI came in at 0.2% in December, below the expectations for a monthly increase of 0.4%. Contrary to the headline reading, the core PPI came in at 8.3% year-on-year, beating expectations of 8%, gaining more-than-expected momentum from the 7.7% year-on-year price increase in November. On a monthly basis, core PPI increased by 0.5% in line with expectations, pointing to a slowdown in the November price increase rate from 0.9%, which was revised from 0.7%.

If we look at the sub-items; Prices for final services rose 0.5% in December after increasing 0.9% in November. Energy prices fell 3.3%, leading the decline in December. An important factor in the decline in December was the gasoline index, which fell 6.1%. The food index fell 0.6%. The final demand goods index decreased by 0.4%.

We continue to monitor the effects on inflation after 2021 saw economic growth curtailed and inflation increased due to supply shortages and delays. Raw material scarcity and semiconductor shortage in production are still important factors in the cost inflation. On the other hand, the monthly easing in energy prices seems to have been effective in the relatively low realization on the input costs side. The Omicron variant, on the other hand, poses a new threat to supply lines as we enter 2022. It’s unclear whether the worst of the pandemic supply chain disruption is behind us, but we’re seeing partial relief.

In the week ending January 8, 230K first applications for unemployment benefits were filed in the US. This reading comes after last week’s print of 207K and beat market expectations of 200K. Continuing jobless claims fell to 1.559 million in the week ended Jan. The 4-week moving average was 210,750, up 6,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 204,500. Especially in the retail services and merchandising sector, there may be variations in January depending on the seasonality of Christmas. Variant concern is still a reservation in terms of contact work.

Kaynak: Tera Yatırım
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