Post-Fed market effects, daily data set

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For the week ended June 12, the seasonally adjusted jobless claims figure was 412,000, up 37,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down 1,000 to 375,000 from 376,000. The 4-week moving average was 395,000, down 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020, at 225,500.

 

According to the June Philly Fed index; Manufacturing activity in the region continued to grow. Survey indicators for overall activity, new orders and shipments remained high, although movements were mixed. Additionally, while the employment index rose, price indices rose above the long-term peaks of last month. Most future indicators have improved, indicating that more firms expect overall growth over the next six months.

 

General indicators seem to be improving. Although tapering now outweighs the balance, we can say that the details that Powell commented on the risk balance in the economy in his speech aim to balance the situation. However, the soft normalization of financial conditions is the ideal momentum as it does not slow the recovery. The missing headings of the economy also keep the time frame at a good point, especially in terms of employment development and qualitative egalitarian recovery. The phenomenon that can increase the acceleration is high inflation. There is high demand in very tight supply conditions, and delivery and supply shortages could slow down the manufacturing industry acceleration from record levels. The two rate hikes expected by the Fed in 2023 (according to the dot plot) will mean that if tapering will begin before, it will also become actionable next year. The impact of the market’s positive data on the economic trajectory will indicate a mixed composition for risky assets, as we saw some weight shift from anti-USD assets to USD yesterday.

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